I have a new home on the internet. I now reside at 538, a fabulous, fabulous polling site. I've been known to do some math in my day (no scoffing, now), and 538 fills that arithmetical hole in my life with amazing, wonderful numbers. Supposedly, their model is ridiculously more accurate than any other predictive methods. The internet told me this, so it must be true. The model even predicted that the White Sox would win their division; that's damn good.
This evening, 538 made me even happier than it usually does. Why? Because it's currently predicting 343.8 electoral votes for Obama, 194.2 for McCain. Because North Carolina, Indiana, and Missouri all just jumped into the Obama column. Because it's even vaguely possible that GEORGIA and part of NEBRASKA will go Obama. WTF!?
I don't have the math background to know if these polls are accurate. I don't trust polls, as a rule. However, one Randall Munroe trusts 538's math, and that's good enough for me.
Now if only they kept track of California ballot propositions...